Continuous Simulation on the Number of Traffic Accidents In Indonesia

Abstract

Traffic accidents are a serious problem in Indonesia, according to data from Central Statistics Agency of Indonesia from 2014 to 2021, on average each year there was an increase in the number of accidents by 1.40% with 218,446 deaths, 131,002 people seriously injured and 958,935 people with minor injuries, taking into account the negative impacts caused, efforts to reduce the number of traffic accidents are very necessary. Traffic accidents do not suddenly appear but rather through a series of events per unit of time in which there are two or more interaction variables, namely human error, facilities/modes, infrastructure and environmental where the severity of the losses that occur are greatly influenced by how strong is the intervention carried out on variables in order to prevent it. The research method uses modeling with continuous simulation which is validated using mean comparisons and amplitude variations for modeling in the form of a Stock Flow Diagram whose model formulation is obtained through literature studies. From the results of simulations on the model carried out in the period 2021 to 2029, it was found that increasing knowledge of safety in traffic and improving road infrastructure was able to reduce the number of accidents by 13.428% or 8,868 incidents per year if the two solutions were implemented simultaneously.